On NOAA, the website of the National Weather Service. This is a portion of the 30 day forcast models.
THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH ENSO COMPOSITES WITH SOME REVISIONS DUE TO THE CFS MODEL FORECASTS AND AN ACTIVE MJO. EL NINO USUALLY INCREASES THE CHANCES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AN ACTIVE MJO IN THE PHASE PREDICTED IN EARLY DECEMBER INCREASES CHANCES FOR ENHANCED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COAST THAN NORMALLY EXPECTED IN EL NINO, SO ELEVATED CHANCES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THIS DECEMBER EXTEND TO SOUTHERN OREGON. THE MJO RELATED ACTIVITY FAVORS WET CONDITIONS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, CONTRADICTING THE DRY CONDITIONS USUALLY FAVORED IN EL NINO DECEMBERS RESULTING IN A FORECAST FOR EQUAL CHANCES FOR BELOW, NEAR, OR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR COASTAL AREAS IN WASHINGTON STATE AND NORTHERN OREGON.
Let's hope they are wrong!
Saturday, November 21, 2009
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